Oscar Predictions 2017

Best Director Nominees

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle. He developed a sweeping musical that pays tribute to both the past while making it engaging to viewers in the 21^st century (even those who are not huge fans of musicals). It is a striking visual film that has a magical essence – truly deserving of the Best Director Oscar.

My Favourite: Though I would probably lean towards Chazelle, I must say that I also enjoyed Mel Gibson’s more traditional war film. He was able to place us in the mind set of Andrew Garfield’s main character, truly making us understand how he came to be the man he is and why he made the choices he made. Gibson has always been more than capable of making gruesome war scenes, and this one is no different, etching the war versus peace story with a certain stark realism. Though many may disagree, it is nice to see that the olive branch has finally been passed to Gibson, seemingly forgiven after a long departure from the mainstream after his incidents. It is a strong year for directors: Villeneuve brought forth an eerie, palpable atmosphere in his cerebral sci-fi movie Arrival; Jenkins brought to life a most human tale of struggle and coping with being different; and Lonergan fused searing drama with a New England humour in his stark motion picture.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

Viola Davis – Fences

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis – Fences

Who Should Win: Viola Davis. Going toe to toe with the formidable Denzel Washington, she holds her own; an intense, pained, powerful and ultimately realistic portrayal. She handles the sharp, beautiful and often stirring dialogue with ease, bringing her 1950’s character to vivid life.

My Favourite: Viola Davis, followed closely by Naomie Harris. Harris, perhaps best known as the new Moneypenny in the James Bond franchise, was transformative in her role, nearly unrecognizable; a caring mother who is less than motherly due to her crippling drug addiction. We can understand why her son has nightmares long after his childhood. Williams also does a formidable job, with several memorable scenes filled with wrought emotion. Alas, her limited screen time did not work in her favour (at least to me). Spencer and Kidman were also excellent, though their roles felt more straightforward and less challenging.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel – Lion

Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali. A multi-faceted role, Ali is able to imbue his drug pushing gangster with a caring heart – seeing the young Charon, who he takes under his wing, as being different; he hopes to provide him with a chance in life. It is not the typical ‘gangster’ role, and Ali nails it. Though he is onscreen a limited amount of time, his character’s echo sticks with us long after his disappearance, very much a scene stealer.

My Favourite: It is hard to argue with Jeff Bridges. Bringing some of his True Grit grizzled charm back, his racist banter with his Native American partner is infectious, though we know that he does care, in an unusual way, about him. I have also been a big fan of Michael Shannon and Dev Patel for some time (think television shows like Boardwalk Empire and Skins respectively), both brought forth solid performances, and, if they keep it up, both will likely win a golden statue at some point.

Best Actress Nominees

Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Ruth Negga – Loving

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Emma Stone – La La Land

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone – La La Land

Who Should Win: Natalie Portman

My Favourite: Both Stone and Portman succeeded in my books. Stone, for a non-dancer and singer, nailed it, capturing the struggles of so many women who have tried to make it in Hollywood as an actress. Portman was able to bring to vivid life the great Jackie Kennedy in her darkest hour. We can see the internalized pain simmering just below the surface, and it is a triumphant story of the human spirit – fighting through immense pain to do your duty and look to the future (despite the fact that in your heart, it feels like there is none). Sadly, Elle never came to any theatres in the vicinity, so there will be a minor asterisk until I see her performance – which is supposed to be superlative (right now, it seems like she is the closest runner-up).

Best Actor Nominees

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington – Fences

Predicted Winner: a coin toss between Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck, with the slightest of edges going to Washington

Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling

My Favourite: This is by far the most exciting race and it is by far the most difficult for me. From a talent standpoint, I love Gosling’s performance. Though he does not have the severe amounts of drama that Affleck or Washington have to emote, he tackles a complicated character who has to deal with drama and comedy, all while singing, dancing, playing jazz piano and keytar. It is a well rounded performance, and though Stone is superlative in her part, Gosling is smoother, more graceful and more comfortable with all of it. Saying that, Washington is once again brilliant in Fences. Directing as well, the dialogue that originally came from the Pulitzer Prize winning stage play is crisp and evocative – Washington conquering it with ease. He is a brilliant character study, and is also deserving of the Oscar. Affleck’s performance did not stick with me like the above two, though he most definitely captured his character’s melancholic, downtrodden vibe to a tee. I have long been a supporter of Viggo Mortensen, feeling that he is one of the best actors of our generation. Dynamic in every which way, he can play a King of men, a two faced man living a dual life, Russian thug, Sigmund Freud, or a father raising his six children in the wilderness (this year’s Captain Fantastic). He was once again outstanding in this one, and it has been wonderful to hear the buzz surrounding his name (especially for such a lesser known film) – though the nomination is all he is getting this year. Garfield also did a great job; a stoic, peaceful figure in the face of the unimaginable horrors of war. There are no weak nominations here – I truly enjoyed each and every one.

Best Picture Nominees

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Predicted Winner: La La Land

Who Should Win: though many are saying Moonlight, La La Land

My Favourite: For me, it was a toss up between Fences and La La Land. I am still talking about each of them, long after seeing both, but would give the edge to Fences. Though both films had a little bit of everything (drama, comedy, magical moments, multi-layered stories), the allegorical/philosophical depth of Fences, its perfect ending and touching moments outweighed the musical masterpiece by a smidgen (though La La Land is by far the more impressive flick visually). I must say that I really enjoyed this year’s batch of Academy Award nominees. Other pictures like Hell or High Water, Lion, and Hacksaw Ridge wowed me, a great mix of visual panache and moving story. The rest were all more than serviceable, engaging, thought-provoking films that should be applauded and have thankfully been lauded.

A few others for you to consider. . .

Best Original Score: likely to be Justin Hurwitz’s musical score for La La Land, though keep an ear out for Mica Levi’s Jackie – a moving composition that is a supreme stand out, and perhaps a likely winner in a year that didn’t feature a sweeping musical.

Best Original Song: an easy win for “City of Stars” from La La Land.

Best Cinematography: should fall in the hands of Linus Sandgren for his bewitching touch in La La Land.

Best Original Screenplay: one of the only other tight races. I really loved Hell or High Water’s deft take on the classic western (transporting it into the modern age), though it will likely be a battle royale between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea. Don’t be surprised if this is one of the only categories where the east coast tale gets the upper hand (though again, it is a coin toss).

Best Adapted Screenplay: this one is less tight, with it looking like Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney winning for Moonlight, though you do have to give Arrival credit for bringing palpable light to the heady, complicated subject matter. . . plus, you cannot argue with something adapted from a Pulitzer Prize winning stage play (Fences).

So here’s to the 89^th annual Academy Awards. Take it away, Jimmy Kimmel!