Oscar Predictions 2018

Best Director Nominees

Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

Jordan Peele – Get Out

Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro. He developed a fascinating fairytale that pays tribute to the past whilst updating concepts and themes from many Universal Horror classics, several movie musicals of yesteryear, as well as many other iconic films, for modern audiences. There is a magic to each and every frame – its colours, characters and pacing creating an asphyxiating aura that will leave you short of breath.

My Favourite: I have long been a fan of del Toro’s (The Devil’s Backbone and Pan’s Labyrinth are two that I rank very highly), so it is no surprise that he has my vote. Otherwise, Nolan’s awe-inspiring craftsmanship is hard to ignore. Focussing on historical accuracy, it is perhaps one of the most realistic war films to have ever have been put on film – each and every boat and ship original to the time, it shot on location in Dunkirk, France, all of the air sequences done with real fighter planes from the era. . . if it wasn’t for his tinkering with time in unusual ways as well as his perspective of focussing on the collective rather than character development, he very well could have swayed me. The other three contenders also deserve kudos – Anderson matching the tone of old fashioned Gothic romances like Rebecca to a tee, while Peele and Gerwig, with a feeling of utter ease, are able to place the viewer in the position of a young African American man who is in for a doozy of a weekend and a teenage girl struggling to find her place growing up in Sacracmento, respectively. To add a touch of controversy to the discussion, I feel like it would have been prudent for Martin McDonagh to be nominated for what he was able to do with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – walking a dangerous tightrope between vulgar comedy and heart-wrenching drama, yet impressively never missing a step.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

Allison Janney – I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread

Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Predicted Winner: Allison Janney – I, Tonya

Who Should Win: Allison Janney. Sweeping the floor with the rest of her opponents this Awards’ season, Janney has claimed every major statue on her way to the Oscars. At ease in the role of the villain, she develops a fascinating, rough around the edges mother, who, by way of her own flawed logic, sees herself as the burden bearer in the situation. It is a character filled with drama and comedy, Janney capably able to make us laugh out loud, only to shudder moments later in disbelief at her heinous attitude towards her daughter.

My Favourite: Janney, though Manville’s manicured performance as the cool manager of her brother’s dressmaking business is a close second. Somewhat reminiscent of Judith Anderson’s Academy Award nominated performance as Mrs. Danvers in Alfred Hitchcock’s Rebecca, she is a fascinating moving part in a home haunted by past memory and present attitude. Metcalf has also garnered a lot of attention, and for good reason. A troubled mother (somewhat like Janney’s role), she flip flops back and forth between supportive and harsh with utter ease. Spencer is, as always, great, while Blige shows amazing range (also nominated for Best Original Song) – though the film’s lack of attention this year does hurt her chances.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted Winner: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Should Win: Sam Rockwell. With a richer character arc than the rest, his epic turn as a dim-witted, racist police officer is absolutely enthralling. Adding brilliant touches of comedy throughout, it is a role an actor could only dream of – and Rockwell grabs the reins, taking us along for the exciting and often bumpy ride.

My Favourite: Hard to argue with Rockwell, though this category is rich with stellar performances. Harrelson is able to match Rockwell with equal measures of heart, drama and comedy, yet his role does not have the same arc that gives his fellow actor the edge. Jenkins’ turn as a closeted gay man in The Cold War era is also wonderfully developed – a man uncomfortable living in his own skin or time. As for what Plummer did in just three days alongside Ridley Scott – it is utterly astounding, rescuing a movie from the verge of ruin (Kevin Spacey was ousted after his name was revealed as being part of the ever-growing list of sexual assault cases) – as it was already in post-production. Finally, Dafoe also does a nice job as a manager of a motel that mostly hosts long term tenants, his big heart shining through the tediousness of living life in less than comfortable surroundings.

Best Actress Nominees

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

Meryl Streep – The Post

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Should Win: In any other year, probably Sally Hawkins, but Frances McDormand

My Favourite: McDormand. Channelling McDonagh’s richly woven character, no one is better at playing anger than she is. Like an anti-hero out of the 1970s, each snarl, smile and line of dialogue, whether big or small, feels real – as if we are watching Dirty Harry smashed together with a grieving mother who has lost her daughter. Hawkins, as mentioned above, is equally as impressive, studying the silent masters, doing more with her vivid face than most actors do with pages of dialogue. Ronan is quickly becoming one of the next big things – already nominated for her third Oscar. Her time will come sooner than later, but her entertaining turn as a teenager struggling with her place in the world is outweighed by the heft of the Three Billboards’ character. Arguably Robbie’s best performance to date, I was very impressed at how she became Tonya Harding. It is a wonderful stepping stone for her, suggesting more greatness in the future. Lastly, Streep, once again lands a nomination – no big shocker here. . . she can act. As always, it is a nice nod to one of the greats, but no chance. . . keep ‘post’ed for next year.

Best Actor Nominees

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Who Should Win: Gary Oldman by a landslide.

My Favourite: Oldman – like del Toro and Rockwell, I have long championed the man and his acting chops. Getting to the very essence of Churchill; the makeup, growl, and diction make us forget that we are watching a performance. We witness his spirit as well as his flaws and self doubt, a magical balance that maketh the man. Chalamet has built up some steam this season, though Oldman has won every major trophy – much like everyone else mentioned above. He has had three impressive roles this season, so it seems like he is very much here to stay. Kaluuya is another one of my favourites (going back to his time on British series like Skins and The Fades), though this mesmeric performance showed that he is a true dramatic actor. His accent flawless, emotions on cue – he was the heart and soul of Get Out, making it work as well as it did. As for the two most lauded actors, Day-Lewis was at his persnickety best in Phantom Thread – a brilliant performance if it is to be his last; while Washington was entertainingly eccentric, though the film lacked the power that last year’s Fences did – a shocking occurrence that Casey Affleck took home the Oscar instead of him.

Best Picture Nominees

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted Winner: The Shape of Water (though like last year’s La La Land, the film that pays tribute to the history of motion pictures is teetering on the edge of a knife. . . so watch out).

Who Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Favourite: As you can probably guess from the ‘Who Should Win’ line, my vote is with Martin McDonagh’s dynamic film. It is the best written (acerbic wit, vitriolic monologues, intriguing character arcs, and surprising twists), has the most stellar performances (why it won the Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble), features a mesmerizing score, and has more than solid direction. It is, simply put, an all-around gem. Falling into second place, The Shape of Water develops a beautiful, artfully told story – visual eye candy with touches of everything you could want. . . its less meaty story is what holds it back. Perhaps the most open race in years, there are also several other sleepers that have a lesser chance. Dunkirk, Get Out, and Lady Bird have been sticking around – Nolan achieving a feat that cannot be denied (though, the ensemble piece lacks the proper punch over a character driven story); Peele creating a socially relevant horror film with his first directorial effort (though it would be a surprise victory, as only one horror movie has ever won Best Picture – Silence of the Lambs); and Gerwig brings to life the dysfunctional senior year of a high school girl (as creative as it is, it is hard to see a coming of age story winning). I personally loved Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread, though they are trending in the wrong direction as we approach Oscar night. The Post felt rushed and lacking, despite its impressive moving parts and relevant subject matter that speaks to present circumstances. And Call Me by Your Name may be too much like an artsy European flick to appeal to voters – unlike last year’s American set Moonlight, which had the double whammy of being about race and its main character struggling to come out in his difficult surroundings.

A few others for you to consider. . .

Best Original Score: A superb year for music, Alexandre Desplat is the frontrunner for The Shape of Water. A beautiful, rich score, he faces a challenge from Jonny Greenwood (of Radiohead fame) – the piano driven composition from Phantom Thread, though Carter Burwell’s Three Billboards music is just as mesmerizing. Two other legends of the profession, Hans Zimmer (ten time nominee – one time winner) and John Williams (a staggering fifty-one nominations – and five wins) are nominated for Dunkirk and Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, respectively, though neither are likely to win. To be frank, Zimmer’s is the only one from this year that I was not overly fond of.

Best Cinematography: I’m thinking that it is finally the time for Roger Deakins (fourteen time nominee, never a winner) – who created some of the most astounding work you will ever see in Blade Runner 2049. Though there was excellent work in Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema), The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen), Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel), and Mudbound (Rachel Morrison), my guess is that voting will fall pretty close to how I’ve layed it out – with Hoytema and Laustsen both having some chance at pulling an upset.

Best Original Screenplay: A very tight race, you would think that it would go to Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards (especially if it wins Best Picture), though Jordan Peele very well could get some love for what he did with Get Out (he seems to have taken over as frontrunner over McDonagh). Lady Bird is likely in third, but could also play spoiler – Greta Gerwig and her motion picture are very popular.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Likely a win for James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name, though it would be amazing to see Michael Green, James Mangold and Scott Frank win for a film that transcended a genre in Logan – an unlikely happening, though I can still hope.

Some done deals. . .

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour – you know it is Gary Oldman under there, right?

Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread – they had real dressmakers working as actors in the film for authenticity.

Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing & Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk, Dunkirk and Dunkirk. . . though I would argue that what Baby Driver did is deserving of some statuettes.

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So here’s to the 90th annual Academy Awards. Let’s hope that there won’t be any twists this year. . . who am I kidding, that gaff made it all the more memorable. Let’s bring on the show!