Oscar Predictions 2019

Best Director Nominees

Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón – Roma

Adam McKay – Vice

Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuarón

Who Should Win: Yorgos Lanthimos. Though Cuarón is one of my favourite present day directors, there is something special in the way Lanthimos has shaped The Favourite, refined, opulent and hypnotic, his stylistic choices linger in the brain long after the final credits have rolled.

My Favourite: Both Roma and The Favourite have a mesmeric quality that cannot be denied. . . a hypnotic rhythm built second by second by the two talented directors. Cuarón’s auteurship is well known, and the three amigos of Mexico (Cuarón, del Toro, and Iñárritu) are already Oscar darlings (Cuarón has already won two Academy Awards, but he is the only one of the three not to have achieved a Best Picture victory), so it is no surprise that the man is the frontrunner, but for some innate reason, Lanthimos’ visual style has stuck with me. McKay does some excellent things (but he misses the mark at times – interrupting the flow), while Lee may be the dark horse – a longtime underdog riding the wave of #OscarsSoWhite and his historical yet topical tale of racism in the 1970s. Sadly, I haven’t been able to see Cold War yet, though I’ve seen Pawlikowski’s superlative work in Ida and I expect nothing less from the filmmaker.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

Amy Adams – Vice

Marina de Tavira – Roma

Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Predicted Winner: Regina King

Who Should Win: Regina King

My Favourite: With an intense performance that seeps through the screen, King is the clear frontrunner. No one has emerged as a challenger (despite Weisz’s win at the BAFTAs), yet her and Stone’s acting deserves mentioning – the pair building a majestic rivalry off of one another, the former, a decisive, dominant powerhouse; the latter, a conniving pained woman looking to restore her status in life by being a yes-woman to the Queen. Adams is likely runner up, but there is not enough meat on the bone within the role (despite her excellent acting), while Tavira’s emotive performance is well deserving of the nod, but not likely to pull in the votes.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell – Vice

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali

Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali. A masterclass in acting along with Viggo – you could teach acting classes with just this one film.

My Favourite: Another quality performance from Ali – quickly becoming an Academy Award favourite. Unbelievably mannered in his every move, he is wholly believable as the stuffy virtuoso pianist. I have long been a huge fan of Grant’s, and his jubilation at receiving a nomination has given him a major boost – the only challenger to Ali. Rockwell is also fantastic, subtly playing the former President with a lived-in performance that slowly creeps up on you until you start to believe you are actually watching Bush onscreen. Elliott has two scenes that truly capture what it is to be deserving of an Oscar (but lacks some screen time), while Driver’s very human portrayal of a Jewish man pretending to be a white neo-Nazi version of his African American partner makes for a layered, nuanced role.

Best Actress Nominees

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Glenn Close – The Wife

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Predicted Winner: Glenn Close

Who Should Win: Olivia Colman. Never has it been more fascinating, entertaining, and, at times, sorrowful, to watch a royal performance.

My Favourite: I personally think it is ridiculous that Colman’s performance does not fall within the Supporting category (she is onscreen less than her two counterparts), yet despite being placed in the wrong category, there is more than enough dynamism in her portrayal of Queen Anne to earn the win – gluttonous, grieving, angry, indifferent and adrift, there is so much range to be found in every movement and word. Of course, I am wholly agreeable to Close winning – a longtime star of the business (now with a seventh nomination), she is equally as deserving for her role in The Wife. Gaga pours her soul out in a role perfectly suited for her (but the film has lost steam over time), while Aparicio is the heart and soul of Roma. And, a final prediction here, Melissa McCarthy will win an Oscar at some point down the road (just not this year).

Best Actor Nominees

Christian Bale – Vice

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Predicted Winner: Rami Malek

Who Should Win: Viggo Mortensen. No one is better at transforming into an array of realistic characters – be it the King of Men in a fantasy film, a two-faced family man/mobster, a Russian gangster, or a hippie-ish father raising his kids off the grid, and this year’s performance is no different.

My Favourite: I have long said Mortensen is too talented to not have a statuette. . . once again proving it with this dynamic, often funny and very lived-in role as Italian/American bouncer Tony Vallelonga. Malek has been sweeping all of the awards along the way, and his role is impressive, though not as dynamic as Mortensen’s. The Mercury character’s development feels like too little butter scraped over too much bread. Cooper, who learned to sing and play guitar for his role (and performed both live while filming), channels his inner Jeff Bridges, though, like I mentioned for Gaga above, the light shining from this Star is fading. Another one of my favourites, Dafoe has earned nominations in back to back years – it is just a shame that neither film was more memorable.

Best Picture Nominees

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Predicted Winner: Roma (squeaking a win over Green Book)

Who Should Win: Green Book. There is something special about Green Book – its historical story speaks directly to present audiences without being too morose or sappy. It is a buddy comedy that only builds through time, finding much drama, humour and life lessons along the way. It is not the most flashy, yet in many ways, it is the most intimate – two brilliant actors making each other better for two hours and ten minutes.

My Favourite: Though I would argue that this has not been the best year for films, the Best Picture race has never been more fascinating. . . why, you may ask? Neither has a foreign language film nor a Netflix movie ever won the big prize, which makes the foreign language Netflix frontrunner Roma so intriguing. A heartfelt arthouse film, its visual splendour and intimate family story (a complex visual tale despite its seeming simplicity) has awed many, yet some voters may have a tough time selecting a motion picture that is not in English and was never given a true theatrical release (a gripe for many who believe this traditional way of seeing movies – communally – is of vital importance compared to just watching it by yourself at home online) – meaning that the film has two hurdles to overcome. With its feel good, inclusive vibe, Green Book will likely earn a slew of second and third place votes as well, meaning that it very well could pull an upset. The Favourite was also one of my favourites (though it doesn’t stand much of a chance) – its rich story, quality performances and visual magnificence making for a royal watch. BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born, and Vice all mush together somewhere in the middle, while Black Panther is the wild card – a gargantuan, almost entirely African-American cast Marvel superhero movie that took the world by storm, but, after all, it is a superhero movie. Could it shock everyone and overcome this long held prejudice. . . likely not, but those of you pulling for it can still dream for a Wakanda win!

A few others you should consider. . .

Best Original Score: Moonlight’s Nicolas Britell once again works with Barry Jenkins, this time on If Beale Street Could Talk, writing a score that touches the heart and soul – at once taking flight while staying grounded. If there is an upset to be found, look to the musical – Mary Poppins Returns – or for a claw-like strike from Black Panther.

Best Cinematography: Much was made of the fact many of the “lesser” categories were not going to be shown this year (an egregious wrong righted at the last minute, Cinematography, Editing, Live-Action Short, and Makeup and Hairstyling restored about two weeks ago), so it is likely we will see Cuarón rightfully hoist it for Roma during the show this Sunday. His black and white film, full of beauty, gloss, and stunning reflections, is a masterclass in lighting – enough said. The Favourite’s natural lighting is also an unexpected treat (and impressive feat), while judging from the trailer, Cold War’s black and white cinematography is also a spectacle. A Star Is Born makes you feel like you are backstage at a concert, while longtime master Caleb Deschanel (ranging from 1979’s Being There and 1983’s The Right Stuff, to 2004’s Passion of the Christ and 2012’s Jack Reacher) earns a sixth deserved nomination for the German film Never Look Away.

Best Original Screenplay: With Cuarón likely winning a few other awards throughout the evening, the race is down to The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara) and Green Book – I’m going to go against the odds makers and give the slight edge to the latter (written by Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga and Brian Currie) as it did get the win at the Golden Globes (not that that really means too much). Vice is too controversial and First Reformed is near unknown (likely a show of respect for Paul Schrader – the iconic scribe of Taxi Driver and Raging Bull has shockingly never earned a nod before).

Best Adapted Screenplay: In a rather eclectic category, this is likely where BlacKkKlansman’s Spike Lee will win his Oscar (along with Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott) – the only other to also be a Best Picture nominee is A Star Is Born. Though Barry Jenkins has built a following since Moonlight (this time earning a nod for If Beale Street Could Talk) and the Coen brothers are always popular (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs), it is unlikely either will make a big push. . . neither will the quality script from Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty (Can You Ever Forgive Me?).

Some done deals. . .

Best Costume Design: Expect royal things for the gowns and getups from The Favourite.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Who knew that wasn’t actually Dick Cheney in Vice.

Foreign Film: If Roma is the frontrunner for Best Picture, it is only logical to expect it to win in this category.

Cheers to the 91st Oscar celebrations. Enjoy the show. . . sans host!