Oscar Predictions 2020

Best Director Nominees

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Todd Phillips – Joker

Sam Mendes – 1917

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Bong Joon Ho – Parasite

Predicted Winner: Sam Mendes

Who Should Win: Bong Joon Ho

My Favourite: A battle for the ages between Sam Mendes and Bong Joon Ho, this sounds sacrilegious coming from a guy obsessed with one shot takes, but Bong Joon Ho should win. In full command of the medium, Mendes’ lofty goals bring with it dips in the story, while Parasite never loses its mesmerizing aura (even when it boldly changes genres midstream). This one is almost a fifty/fifty guess, so take this prediction with a grain of salt. Funnily enough, original predictions would have had a battle between Scorsese and Tarantino, yet its funny how things can change so quickly. I am also glad Phillips got nominated, as his 70s inspired anti-establishment/anti-hero take on Arthur Fleck/Joker is a true game-changer for the comic book genre. Lastly, look for this category to be an indicator. If Mendes could hold on, 71% of Best Director winners take Best Picture (so that could ruin my picks), so if Bong Joon Ho can pull off the mini upset, get ready for what could be a roller coaster ride.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Predicted Winner: Laura Dern

Who Should Win: Laura Dern

My Favourite: I’m a bit torn on this one. Marriage Story didn’t do much for me, even though Laura Dern’s turn as a ‘very’ L.A. lawyer was spot on. I am more drawn to Scarlett Johansson’s role in Jojo Rabbit. A touch reminiscent of what Roberto Begnini did in Life is Beautiful, she tries to shelter her son from this dangerous world while also attempting to make changes for the better. Pugh has made a real statement in Little Women (and it is quite clear she is here to stay), while Robbie once again proves she is a dynamic actress (smartly switching back and forth between Oscar pictures like I Tonya and big budget films à la Suicide Squad). Plus it is always a treat experiencing a Kathy Bates performance.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Predicted Winner: Brad Pitt

Who Should Win: Brad Pitt

My Favourite: Though it was wonderful seeing Pesci back in the game, and Pacino was the best at capturing a much younger man in The Irishman, and the two H’s in Hanks and Hopkins once again showed off their immense skills, it is all about Brad Pitt this year. Loosely basing his role off of B movie actor Tom Laughlin, he captures the cool in this fantasy version of late 60s Hollywood. I could say more, but I’d rather just watch the performance again!

Best Actress Nominees

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Renée Zellweger – Judy

Predicted Winner: Renée Zellweger

Who Should Win: Renée Zellweger

My Favourite: Sweeping the awards season this year, Renée Zellweger is as close to a shoe-in as possible. A recent trend, celebrities playing icons who sang seem to be bringing home the gold, and this is no different (plus, Zellweger does a magical job capturing the Hollywood icon). As to the other nominees, I was blown away with Erivo in 2018’s Bad Times at the El Royale, and her role in Harriet is equally as impressive (though the film isn’t strong enough for a win). Also, I am starting to feel like a broken record, but Ronan will win an Oscar sooner or later (again, a dynamic role this year). . . while Charlize Theron is transformative as Megyn Kelly (arguably her best role since her ‘Monster Oscar’ winning performance – say that five times fast) and Scarlett Johansson is a solid half in a Marriage Story – two worthwhile nominations this year.

Best Actor Nominees

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

Predicted Winner: Joaquin Phoenix – laughing his way to the Oscar (and boy did he laugh a lot in Joker)

Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

My Favourite: Right off the bat, I’ll tell you this has been a long time coming. Joaquin Phoenix should have won for his portrayal of Commodus in Gladiator and easily could have won for playing Johnny Cash in Walk the Line, so I for one am happy that this comic book performance has taken hold. Though the other four performers are all worthy of their nods, DiCaprio has already won, Banderas, though transcendent as his mentor Pedro Almodóvar, won’t steal the statuette away for a foreign film, and it is unlikely the two performances from Netflix films will challenge much either (though both Driver and Pryce were stand-outs in wholly different ways).

Best Picture Nominees

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

1917

Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Parasite

Predicted Winner: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (though many are saying 1917)

Who Should Win: Parasite – A rare film that transcends its subtitles, it is dark comedy, Hitchcockian thriller, social commentary, and visual masterpiece

My Favourite: With the Oscars race starting off very slowly this year (it took a long time for any picture to really gain some hype), like last year, the Best Picture race has never been more fascinating. . . why, you may ask? More unpredictable than most years, it is very much a three film race. 1917 brings forth the technical splendour (though WW1 films do not have the cache WW2 pictures do), whereas Once Upon a Time has the coveted Hollywood aspect (Academy members always love stories about their hometown), while an Oscar has yet to go to a foreign film (though many thought Roma would finally do it last year), yet Parasite has come on strong this season (many were shocked it took home the big prize at the SAGs). Making for a difficult decision, I lean more towards the Hollywood vote than the technical wizardry (I’m in the minority on this perspective), though by splitting the vote, that may give the South Korean film more of an opening – a rare chance to be sure. In all honesty, I’d be happy to see Parasite win, followed closely by Once Upon a Time (which is why you will notice that I chose a photo for the South Korean film – an added vote of confidence from me). Perhaps more than any other year, flip a three sided coin and see where it lands (as it is almost too close to call). Meanwhile, Ford v Ferrari never shifted to the next gear, The Irishman has been whacked at each and every awards show, Jojo Rabbit is a beloved but too controversially quirky premise (so I’ll just say nein!), the Academy isn’t ready for a comic book win yet (in Joker), Little Women comes off as a touch too small against the heavyweights, while Netflix should still expect to be waiting for their first Best Picture (for both The Irishman and Marriage Story have not separated themselves from the pack).

A few others you should consider. . .

Best Original Score: A unique, old-school way of doing things, Hildur Guðnadóttir wrote her score for Joker before the film was shot, setting the mood and atmosphere for the entire piece (a technique used by Sergio Leone). It perfectly captures Joker’s themes, mood and tone. Her only competition will come from Thomas Newman for 1917 – a fourteen time nominee who has never won (so, he may rake in a surprising number of votes. . . enough maybe to pull off the upset). There are some other great scores that you should look into, but I simply want to highlight one other. . . John Williams’ composition for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – his 52nd Academy Award nomination (wow!!!).

Best Cinematography: After years of being the bridesmaid and never the bride, Roger Deakins finally won for Blade Runner 2049 in 2018, and he will likely win just two years later for his unbelievable work in 1917 (perhaps he should only make films with dates in them from now on?). Though Robert Richardson’s work on Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood is likely Deakins only competition, Jarin Blaschke also deserves credit for the stunning black and white feature, The Lighthouse.

Best Original Screenplay: This one should be so close between Quentin Tarantino and Bong Joon Ho. . . it is really difficult to call. Again, I would side with Parasite’s scribe, though if I was putting money on it, Quentin might pull it off just because it is an English language feature (again, a fifty/fifty flip of the coin). Kudos to Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns (for 1917), Rian Johnson for his Agatha Christie-like take in Knives Out and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Expect this to be the only major award picked up by Jojo Rabbit. . . Taika Waititi’s meteoric rise will be further heightened by this win. His main competition will be Little Women’s Greta Gerwig. . . who, like Waititi, is flying high the last few years. She is definitely capable of pulling off the win, but I think Waititi’s bold, original, and daring screenplay likely trumps the nicely reworked-for-the-21st-century adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel.

Some done deals. . .

Best Costume Design: Those Little Women sure did wear nice clothes. . . very small chance coming from Jojo Rabbit.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Who knew that wasn’t actually Megyn Kelly, Gretchen Carlson and Roger Ailes in Bombshell.

Foreign Film: If Parasite is one of the frontrunners for Best Picture, it is only logical to expect it to win in this category.

Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing: The only chance for Ford v Ferrari to shine (and man, was the sound impressive in it), but expect the spectacle that is 1917 to pull in both of these technical awards.

Cheers to the 92nd Oscar celebrations. Enjoy the show. . . sans host for the second straight year!